Ever since taking office, Obama has been trying to persuade Israel to halt settlement expansion. His original demand was stated in unequivocal language and in May earlier this year, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton stated that the US administration "wants to see a stop to settlements"; not some settlements, not outposts, and not 'natural growth' exceptions".
Originally it seemed that Netanyahu would only agree to a "temporary" freeze, lasting around nine months, which would not include Jerusalem and would in fact allow for the construction of 3,000 housing units in the West Bank. There were signs that the Obama administration was willing to accept this even though Palestinians have pointed out that this effectively means that settlement will continue at the same pace as before. However, it seems now that Netanyahu will not even abide by this formula which makes a mockery of Obama's original demand. Netanyahu's spokesman recently said, "You have never heard the prime minister say that he will freeze settlements. The opposite is true."
The Obama administration has now completely abandoned its original demand for a settlement freeze. U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell has failed to achieve anything despite an ongoing round of marathon diplomacy aimed at restarting the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Following a trilateral meeting between Obama, Netanyahu, and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, referring to settlement building, Mitchell said that "Neither the president nor the Secretary [of state, Hilary Clinton], nor I have ever said of any one issue that it is a precondition of negotiations". In saying this, he rendered all his efforts over the previous five months, which were aimed at halting settlement building as a prelude to the resumption of negotiations, meaningless. It is clear that the Obama administration has been forced into a humiliating climb-down over the issue of settlements, which has now been pushed to one side freeing Israel to proceed with construction unhindered.
Obama has lost face over this issue because he was unwilling to back up his forthright demand for a halt to settlement construction with measures that would force compliance from Israel's rightwing government. Obama could have used the Goldstone report into Israel's war crimes in Gaza to pressure Israel or threatened to withhold the customary U.S. veto over any Security Council resolution detrimental to Israel. He could even have looked at reducing aid or withholding military equipment. However, Obama may have recalled what happened to George .W. Bush, who withheld loan guarantees to Israel over the settlements issue and described himself as "one little guy" up against "some powerful political forces" consisting of "a thousand lobbyists on [Capitol] Hill". Bush was ultimately defeated by the Zionist lobby, losing the presidency after a single term in office.
The wisdom of bringing settlement construction to the foreground as the main issue in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is questionable. While the construction of settlements is a major issue and a terrible injustice against the Palestinians; dispossessing them of their land and jeopardizing their prospects of creating a viable state, there are other issues which are at least equally as urgent. Thanks to Israel's ongoing siege, the water supply in the Gaza Strip is close to running out and the territory's 1.5 million residents risk being poisoned by contaminants in the water. Earlier this year, hundreds of thousands of tons of food aid sent to Gaza after the war, rotted away on the Egyptian border because of Israel's refusal to allow it in. Obama has maintained absolute silence about this siege, just as he remained deafeningly silent during Israel's assault on Gaza.
Obama's call on Israel to freeze settlements seems to be more about public relations than anything else. He probably focused on this issue because unlike the issue of Gaza, for example, there is more leeway for his Israeli allies to grant "concessions" which in reality amount to nothing. His aim may have been to secure an Israeli announcement of a freeze on the understanding that Israel would, in the near future, be able to resume construction unimpeded. In return, Israel would receive concessions from the Arab states such as over-flight rights for its aircraft and the establishment of trade links. The Palestinian Authority would then be able to resume negotiations with Israel, while pretending to its people that it had won an important concession. In the meantime, Obama would improve his standing among Arabs and Muslims as a U.S. president sympathetic to them, and would gain additional acclaim as a statesman throughout the world. In response to President Bush's withholding of loan guarantees in 1992, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin announced a "freeze" on settlement construction which in fact allowed for the construction of 10,000 housing units and was forgotten about a short time later (The population of the settlements has increased three-fold since that time). Israel's current right-wing government however, refused to grant Obama even such a nominal gesture.
Instead Obama has chosen to put pressure on the Palestinians. He effectively compelled Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to attend a meeting with himself and Netanyahu in which the three leaders shook hands for the cameras but achieved little else. Former U.S. peace negotiator Aaron David Miller described the results of the meeting as "Netanyahu 1, and Abbas, Obama and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process zero". Netanyahu managed to make both Abbas and Obama look weak and vacillating. Abbas previously asserted that he would not lift his boycott of Netanyahu's government until settlement building stopped but was forced into the charade of a meeting in which Israel gave no concessions whatsoever. As for Obama, the meeting signaled that his demand that Israel stop settlement construction was well and truly buried. Afterwards, Netanyahu said, "The importance of the meeting was actually its existence" - A statement which clearly illustrates that the meeting was merely a photo opportunity.
A much more significant development took place a few days later. Abbas withdrew his support for the Goldstone report into the war crimes committed by Israel during the Gaza conflict bowing once again to heavy U.S. pressure and thus preventing the U.N. Human Rights Council from endorsing the report and referring it to the Security Council and the International Criminal Court. This aroused widespread Palestinian anger against Abbas, with calls for him to resign or to be put on trial for treason. Even Abbas's closest confidants turned against him, while he was forced to pretend - laughably - that the decision had nothing to do with him.
It is very doubtful that Obama will find a Palestinian leader as accommodating to the U.S. and Israel as Mahmoud Abbas, nevertheless U.S. pressure is currently threatening to undermine him. There is now even talk of a new Palestinian intifada - not against Israel but against Abbas. On the other hand, Obama's refusal to pressurize Israel in any way means that the peace process, if it exists at all, will be a farce. As far as the Goldstone report was concerned, Obama had to literally do nothing in order to send a warning to Israel over its refusal to move ahead with the peace process. He could have simply allowed the Palestinians to support the report at the Human Rights Council. Instead he chose to place all the U.S.'s diplomatic weight at the service of Israel. He has also recently allowed the U.S. navy to hold massive joint military exercises with the Israeli air force.
Israel's racist foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who has previously said that the U.S. only supports the peace process if it is in Israel's interest, has been openly gloating about Obama's failure. After Netanyahu's meeting with Abbas and Obama he said, "This government has shown that you don't always need to get flustered, to surrender and give in. What's important for me is that this government kept its promises to the voters ... and the fact is that this meeting happened". He is now saying that there will be no peace agreement with the Palestinians for many years to come.
Last week, Obama was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize to the astonishment of the world. It seems that all he had to do to get it was to say a few comforting words about peace in the Middle East and elsewhere without actually doing anything significant. His actions, as far as the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is concerned, show how vacuous these words are. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his extremist government have free rein to do as they please in the West Bank.
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