EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN
PART 2

In the second part of the interview, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan tells why he believes the era of the people has arrived in the Arab World and the end of tyranny is nigh. Anyone who does not recognise this fact or closes his eyes in the belief that the will of people can be defeated and their voice can be muzzled will, he argues, pay a high price and will only have themselves to blame.

Prime Minister Erdogan's trip to three "Arab spring" countries - Egypt, Tunisia and Libya - makes me wonder what Turkey's take is on the changes taking place in the Arab world. What encouraged me is that I knew that a team has been formed in the Turkish Foreign Ministry to analyse events in the Arab world since the start of the uprisings in January. Furthermore, the Prime Minister has brought in experts who are fluent in Arabic to keep him informed daily about events in the region. His Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has become one of most important experts on Arab affairs with a regular presence in Middle East capitals.

"Our relations with the Arab world do not need any explanation," said Mr. Erdogan. "We have observer status at the Arab League and our relations go beyond economic interests to strategic visions and common concerns; the Palestine cause is high up on the list of priorities." As a result, he continued, victory for the Arab people is a victory for Turkey. "Freedom and free will brings them back to assume their rightful place in history, to face and overcome challenges."

The Prime Minister regards the fall of the Berlin Wall as a milestone of modern history. "The World has witnessed many changes since then," he said, "but they passed the Arab world by, especially in terms of public freedoms." The revolutions across the region have, he believes, "signalled the end of tyranny and the start of the people's era". Although some people have not quite grasped the significance of these changes, "the wheel of history continues to turn and at the end of the day what's right is right."

Erdogan's visit to Egypt is the beginning of what he hopes will be a strategic partnership. "If the Arab world has many doors," he told me, "then Egypt is the main doorkeeper." It is central to the development, or regression, of the region and Turkey, he said, is looking to "strengthen cooperation" with Egypt, especially economically.

I suggest that Turkey felt that the Mubarak regime treated Ankara with some caution. "This is true even though it did not affect economic cooperation." Turkey proposed the abolition of visas for their respective citizens but, claims the Prime Minister, even though Turkey has such an arrangement with other Arab states "the idea was met with some reservation". What happened? "We suggested alternatives to facilitate easier entry for Egyptian businessmen coming to Turkey whenever they want." Egypt's situation and point of view was understood, said Erdogan, and appreciated. "Post-revolution we can see that Egypt has changed course and chosen the path of progress; this raises hope for the Arab world."
Does Turkey have concerns about Syria, I wondered? If we talk about the need for rulers to listen to the voice of the people and the demise of tyranny, what is happening in Syria? The Prime Minister has been in direct contact with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, with whom he has a close personal relationship. The phone calls apparently stopped four weeks ago. Through Foreign Minister Davutoglu, at least five messages have been given to al-Assad, ranging from cautious advice to a warning of the consequences of the harsh security crackdown by Damascus.

"Our relations with Syria were at their best, with widespread cooperation and understanding on all levels but things began to change when the Syrian people went onto the streets to express their anger and demand reforms to restore dignity and freedom in society." The harsh response surprised Turkey, claimed the Prime Minister, and made him pessimistic. "When the blood of the people is shed in the way that has been seen in Syria, then the first lines of the regime's death certificate are written; every drop of blood adds a new line."

Did you contact President al-Assad? "Yes, we made contact and the president told us that his country is being targeted by foreign powers; he promised to take calming measures and respond to the demands for reforms. I sent Ahmet Davutoglu to Damascus to verify what was agreed over the phone and see for himself the situation on the ground."

The reality, he said, was not what Turkey had been promised. "It's not possible to keep people repressed indefinitely," Erdogan pointed out, "so we repeated our advice for peaceful reform but to no avail."

Turkey didn't give up. "We invited the Syrian President to take specific steps to save the situation: Withdraw heavy armour from the cities; release detainees and political prisoners; end the state of emergency in practice, and not just the abolition of the law without any changes in policies; end the monopoly of the ruling Baath Party on political activity. This would open the door to political pluralism and public freedom, especially freedom of speech and freedom to form political parties and trade unions."

What was the Syrian response? "We kept hearing promises but we did not see them implemented on the ground."

Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has said that he has lost hope in the Syrian regime being reformed. Does Erdogan agree with that assessment? His response was unambiguous: "Yes, I share his feeling of despair." But Turkey, he added, will not stop trying to help, even after so much bloodshed. "Syria is our neighbour with whom we share a long border, more than 900 kilometres in fact. We have common ties and interests which we cannot ignore." Stability in Syria, he said, is in Turkey's security interests.

When I asked Mr. Erdogan if he has a worst case scenario in mind, he told me that a sectarian war between the ruling minority Alawites and the majority Sunni Muslims is a worry. "Elite Alawites dominate in politics, the army and the security services," he said, "so people may direct their anger not only at the people in power but also at their neighbours." Unfortunately, claims Erdogan, the regime knows this and is playing the sectarian card and is, he believes, "ready to set the country on fire to remain in power", using gangsters to exploit divisions in society.

What is the solution? "From the beginning we have called on President al-Assad to listen to the voice of his people and to note the changes in the Arab world; he hasn't. We will not tire of repeating this to him." Furthermore, Turkey does not see any possibility of ending the crisis while the Syrian president has people advising him who insist on repression as the solution. "If he does not take advice and make changes then he will pay the price."
Iran's support for Syria is reflected in media attacks on Turkey but President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has now called on Damascus to stop using force against its own people. What, I wondered, is Turkey's view of this shift in position by Tehran?

"Officially, our relations with Tehran have not been affected by the situation in Syria. Our economic links are strong and Iran is the main supplier of gas to Turkey; trade is worth about $10 billion dollars and there is an agreement between the two countries to raise it to 15 billion by 2015."
Prime Minister Erdogan believes that Turkey has played a role in changing Iran's discourse with Syria. "We explained the serious consequences for Syria if repression is allowed to carry on and asked Tehran to have confidence in the Syrian people and trust their decisions." Speaking frankly, he continued, we asked the Iranians not to pamper the Syrian regime but encourage it before it is too late. "President Ahmadinejad has clearly taken our advice."

Foreign Minister Davutoglu will visit Iran soon to continue discussions regarding the Syrian situation; Mr Erdogan will follow when things have calmed down somewhat to meet officials, try to resolve any outstanding issues and strengthen cooperation between Ankara and Tehran.

Turkey had huge economic interests in Gaddafi's Libya, so I asked the Prime Minister what his country's assessment is of the current situation.

"Gaddafi did not understand what happened to Egypt's Mubarak and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia. Nevertheless, our interests were and continue to be with the Libyan people regardless of their regime. When we had to choose between standing with the regime or support for the people we chose the people."

Turkey is a member of NATO, I said. What about the organisation's intervention and the role played by western countries in toppling Gaddafi's regime? Does Erdogan believe that the intervention was innocent and not motivated by economic interests such as oil and reconstruction contracts?
"I will summarise my answer in two points: First, we were and are against any international intervention in Libya; second, we believe that western countries have no right to Libya's oil, which belongs to the Libyan people. France tried to play a solo role in Libya on the pretext of supporting the revolution and established a presence there, but this endeavour failed, especially after the intervention of NATO. Even the Paris conference failed to achieve the expected results."

But NATO embodies international intervention and so Turkey was involved in supporting the revolution, was it not? It's not that simple, said Erdogan. "Gaddafi created a problem when he attacked his opponents using heavy weapons and put civilian lives at risk. The rebels had to choose between genocide at the hands of Gaddafi's forces and asking for NATO's help." It was, he believes, a choice between two evils, the greater evil represented by possible genocide and the lesser of the two represented by NATO involvement. "The people of Libya chose the lesser of two evils."

That doesn't explain Turkey's involvement. "We refused to allow Turkish weapons to be used against any Libyan or Arab citizen and we said as much very frankly from the beginning. Our role as a member of NATO was limited to the supply of information."

Has Turkey entered the reconstruction contract race in Libya? Existing contracts will be fulfilled, answered Erdogan, the national airlines will resume flights within a week and when the situation in Libya becomes more stable, relations between Ankara and Tripoli will go back to their normal state. "These were not tied to a specific time or regime."

Finally, I asked Mr Erdogan if he thinks that the "Zero Problem Policy" advocated by Ahmet Davutoglu over the past few years is still valid or does it need to be reviewed in the light of the political changes in the region.

"The call for ending problems does not mean we are going to live without problems," he replied. "It means that we deal with them as they arise." Nobody can develop and make progress if we are surrounded by problems, he added. "Hence, this policy is not a temporary measure limited to a certain stage; it is a continuous process which we are committed to in order to secure our progress and our relations with our neighbours and the wider world."

The Prime Minister cited his relations with Syria. "They were great, for example, but changes on the other side have created some distance between the two countries, but we will work on that." This is his aim for the "Zero Problem policy"; stop it getting worse, contain it and limit its negative consequences. Is his tour of the Arab spring countries part of that policy? He laughed. "We are just trying to build closer relations; there are no problems which need our attention."